JPMorgan Chase has revised its valuation model for the cryptocurrency exchange Bullish, lowering the target stock price to $45 for December 2026. This adjustment comes in light of strong quarterly financial results that exceeded market expectations for revenue and EBITDA. At the same time, the bank has maintained a “neutral” rating for Bullish.
This is reported by Business • Media
Financial Results and Valuation Adjustment
JPMorgan analysts noted that Bullish’s quarterly revenue reached $77 million, surpassing both market and bank forecasts of $74 million. Adjusted EBITDA amounted to $29 million, also above the expected $26 million. Earnings per share for the quarter stood at $0.10, in line with Bloomberg’s consensus.
Despite the positive momentum, JPMorgan reduced the target stock price from $46 to $45, as it adjusted its forecast by excluding revenues from IPOs in stablecoins. It is worth noting that Bullish’s initial public offering of $1.15 billion was entirely conducted in stablecoins.
As experts explained: “We maintain a neutral rating but are lowering our target price as we take a closer look at interest income from stablecoins.”
The largest contribution to revenue came from the Subscription Services & Other (SS&O) segment — $50 million compared to $12 million a year earlier and $47 million projected in JPMorgan’s model. Analysts emphasized that despite seasonally weaker activity, this segment showed significant growth. Approximately $6.2 million of SS&O revenue for the quarter came from promotional payments with nearly 100% margin. Excluding this factor, adjusted EBITDA would have been $22.4 million.
Future Outlook and Key Drivers
JPMorgan has revised its forecasts for adjusted earnings per share (EPS): for 2025, from $0.44 to $0.31, and for 2026, from $1.29 to $0.93. The bank expects that in the fourth quarter, Bullish will generate about $12 million in promotional revenue from stablecoins, equivalent to $37 million on an annual basis in 2027. However, these funds are not included in the company’s core valuation.
JPMorgan analysts view Bullish’s market prospects positively for the end of the year, noting that the fourth quarter could be more constructive for the company. Key growth factors include the early launch of options trading, further integration of institutional investors in the U.S., and obtaining a BitLicense in New York in October.
Additionally, in November 2023, Bullish acquired the media company CoinDesk, which may strengthen its market position.