One of the most active traders on the decentralized betting platform Polymarket, known by the nickname JustWakingUp, placed a $15,000 bet on the likelihood that the U.S. Federal Reserve will immediately cut the interest rate by 50 basis points to 3.75% next week.
This is reported by Business • Media
Interest in Aggressive Cuts Grows
According to the Polymarket Whales community, JustWakingUp is the largest trader on the platform: his total trading volume exceeds $400 million, and his overall profit is over $2 million. If his prediction of a double rate cut is correct, the trader could earn up to $226,000. This bet currently offers a return of 3%.
“Polymarket’s most prolific trader (> $2m profit) bet $15k that the Fed will cut interest rates by 50+ bps this month. They’ll win $226k if they do. Smart bet?”
However, most of the market expects less drastic moves from the Fed. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25 basis point cut is estimated at 91.8%. Following the release of weak U.S. labor market data, the chances of an aggressive 50 basis point cut have risen to nearly 10%.
Macroeconomic Signals and Investor Expectations
Additional momentum for such a forecast has come from new data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: it was revealed that the country’s economy created 911,000 fewer jobs from March 2024 to March 2025 than previously thought. This marks the largest annual downward revision in the history of the data collection.
In light of such news, market expectations for more decisive actions from the Fed have increased. Analysts from BlackRock and Standard Chartered have also expressed their forecasts regarding a double rate cut. According to Polymarket, at the time of preparing this material, the probability of a 50 basis point cut stands at 14.2%, while for a 25 basis point cut, it is 82%.
Markets are closely monitoring upcoming releases of the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI). If these indicators turn out to be weaker than expected, it could increase the likelihood of decisive actions from the Fed and boost growth in the stock and cryptocurrency markets.
It is worth noting that following the release of the minutes from the July Fed meeting, the crypto market reacted with an increase, as two members of the Open Market Committee supported the idea of lowering the interest rate.