The migration flows of Ukrainian citizens after the end of the war could become an important factor for the economic recovery and growth of Central and Eastern European countries. Analysts at S&P Global note that currently about half of the Ukrainian refugees in the European Union have chosen to reside in 11 Central and Eastern European countries (CEE-11). This trend positively affects the development of local labor markets and supports economic activity in the region.
This is reported by Business • Media
The Potential for Economic Growth Through Migration
Experts emphasize that the role of Ukrainian migrants in CEE-11 countries can be both positive and negative for the economy. Estimates suggest that the impact of refugees on the gross domestic product (GDP) of the most sensitive economies in this region may vary from a decrease of 6% to an increase of 3%. However, the longer the war continues, the higher the likelihood of maintaining a positive migration balance in favor of the host countries.
Integration and Future Trends
A significant portion of Ukrainian displaced persons in EU countries consists of women and children, as men of conscription age remain in Ukraine due to the state of war. Analysts stress that the further direction of post-war migration will largely depend on the level of integration of Ukrainian citizens into their new societies.
“In the event of a cessation of hostilities, we expect families to reunite either in Ukraine or in the host country,” the report states.
The list of CEE-11 countries includes Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia. The economies of these countries could receive significant support through effective policies for integrating Ukrainian migrants and involving them in the labor market.