The National Bank of Ukraine, together with the Ministry of Finance, has developed an alternative action plan in case the volumes of external financial assistance for Ukraine in 2026–2027 prove to be insufficient. This was stated by NBU Deputy Chairman Serhiy Nikolaychuk, emphasizing that in the event of a deficit in international financing, the regulator is considering the possibility of implementing a stricter monetary policy. Such a step could affect the state of the financial market and the pace of the country’s economic recovery.
This is reported by Business • Media
Budget Needs and Expectations for Assistance
According to Serhiy Nikolaychuk, in 2026, the deficit of Ukraine’s state budget could reach 19% of GDP. In the following year, the country needs to attract about $35 billion, of which approximately $13 billion still lacks confirmed sources. In 2027, the need for external financing will increase even further. Overall, the government estimates the financing requirement at $75 billion over 2026–2027, assuming high security risks remain, and of this amount, $37.4 billion also remains unconfirmed.
Expert Forecasts and Conditions for International Support
The NBU’s forecasts suggest that in 2026, Ukraine will be able to receive about $35 billion in external assistance, and in 2027—approximately $30 billion. At the same time, Elena Bilan, an expert from the investment group Dragon Capital, notes that during 2025–2026, Ukraine can expect to receive about $78 billion in international support. She emphasizes that part of this amount depends on the implementation of reforms, and key uncertainty remains regarding the volumes of additional financing.
“A plan for such a situation exists, but it involves a stricter monetary policy, which will affect the financial market and the pace of economic recovery.”