In 2025, Ukrainian oil producers may face a severe raw material shortage caused by the lowest sunflower harvest in the last decade. It is forecasted that the volume of harvested sunflowers will be 11.4 million tons, creating a significant gap between available processing capacities and the supply of seeds. The imbalance could reach 10.2 million tons, which will significantly intensify competition among factories for raw material procurement and put pressure on oil producers’ margins.
This is reported by Business • Media
Harvest Reduction and Consequences for Processors
For the first time in many years, the market is facing such a large-scale sunflower shortage, putting nearly half of Ukrainian processing enterprises at risk of remaining underloaded. Producers who can quickly switch to processing other oilseeds, such as soybeans or rapeseed, may find it easier to navigate this challenging season. According to experts, the flexibility in crop selection will allow some enterprises to avoid serious production losses.
“The imbalance between processing capacities and the supply of sunflower seeds this year could reach approximately 10.2 million tons, which will intensify competition among factories for raw materials and create significant pressure on processing margins.”
From July to September 2025, one of the largest domestic agroholdings processed 559 thousand tons of oilseeds, which is 18% less compared to the same period last year. Sunflower remained the main crop for processing.
Situation in the Corn Market
While a shortage is projected in the sunflower market, analysts assess the prospects for exporting Ukrainian corn as positive. It is estimated that in the 2025-2026 marketing year, Ukraine could finish the export season with a corn surplus of about 5 million tons. This is attributed to increased yields, delayed harvests, and intensified competition in global markets. The export potential for corn this season is expected to be 24.5 million tons.