The Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine has approved a new medium-term Forecast for the economic and social development of the country for 2026–2028, which considers two scenarios for future developments.
This is reported by Business • Media
Two Scenarios for Economic Growth
According to the optimistic scenario, if the security situation in the country begins to improve significantly from 2026, the GDP growth rate could reach 4.5% in 2026, 5% in 2027, and 5.7% in 2028. The alternative, pessimistic scenario assumes that active hostilities will continue throughout the next year, limiting GDP growth to 2.4% in 2026, 4.7% in 2027, and 4.5% in 2028.
Forecast for Average Salary
The Ministry of Finance forecasts continued active growth of the average salary regardless of the scenario of events. Thus, in 2026, the average salary may exceed 30,000 hryvnias (approximately $725.8), in 2027 it may reach nearly 35,000 hryvnias ($846.8), and by 2028 it could approach 40,000 hryvnias ($967.7). For comparison, preliminary estimates suggest that in 2025, the average salary in Ukraine is expected to be around 24,400 hryvnias ($590.3).
The optimistic scenario assumes a significant improvement in the security situation starting from 2026, which will ensure GDP growth of 4.5% in 2026, 5% in 2027, and 5.7% in 2028.
According to last year’s results, Ukraine’s GDP grew by 2.9%. At the same time, the current government forecast for 2025 anticipates a slowdown in growth rates to 2.7%.