The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has revised its forecast for real GDP growth in Ukraine for 2026 downward. According to the June report “Regional Economic Outlook”, the expected GDP growth in 2026 will be 2.2% instead of the previously forecasted 2.5%.
This is reported by Business • Media
Forecasts for 2027 and the significance of international support
In the baseline scenario, the forecast for 2027 remains unchanged at 4.0%. Such a level of economic growth is possible provided that hostilities are quickly concluded and large-scale post-war reconstruction of the country begins. The EBRD emphasizes that the Ukrainian economy continues to demonstrate macroeconomic stability, largely due to international financial support.
Main factors slowing down Ukraine’s economy
EBRD experts cite a number of key risks that hinder Ukraine’s economic growth. Among the main challenges for the country are:
- labor shortages;
- significant damage to energy infrastructure;
- logistical constraints caused by the war;
- additional pressure from global energy instability.
According to the report, after a period of stabilization, inflation in Ukraine has begun to accelerate again. This is partly attributed to external economic shocks and the impact of wartime factors on the domestic economy.
“Inflation has begun to accelerate again after a period of stabilization, which is partly attributed to external shocks and wartime factors.”
The EBRD continues to support the Ukrainian economy: during the full-scale war, the bank has provided over 10 billion euros to Ukraine to strengthen key sectors and enhance energy resilience.
It is worth noting that the Ministry of Economy, together with the World Bank, has been working on a new development strategy called “Economy of the Future” throughout the year. This 15-year program, announced by President Volodymyr Zelensky and Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko on May 19, aims to implement a liberal economic model in Ukraine.